Commercial Multi-Family Foreclosures

Several articles in this month’s “UNITS,” the NAA’s (National Apartment Association) Magazine, discuss the coming “Wave” of foreclosures in Commercial Multi-Family properties. Remember, the definition of Commercial Multi-Family properties is a residential property of five units or greater. I mentioned this in my post almost two years ago. But the UNITS guys don’t mess around, they’re talking mostly about properties in the 200+ unit range. These are some big foreclosures, and you have to be a REIT or a very large private player to pick one of these up. The good news for small real estate investors, is that the under 100 unit properties will be facing the exact same thing, so keep your powder dry, because your day will come. And it may be sooner than you think.

Lot’s of talking heads are talking about a bottom in real estate prices, but that’s because they don’t know what they are talking about, or they want to feel good or they interviewed some “expert” that said things are going to get better. There are so many properties entering the foreclosure pipeline, and so many brand spanking new houses that no one has ever lived in just sitting, that there has to be continued downward pressure on prices. One real estate office manager with a large national chain that I recently spoke to said her firm is predicting a 1% per month decline in prices. That’s a 12% annual rate, in case you’re slow on the uptake. If you have been thinking about selling your house, do it now and price it right, because a year from now it will be worth less, I promise.

So are single family home prices tied to Commercial Multi-Family property prices? Yes and no. I would say there is not a one-to-one connection, but commercial property ran up when single family residential did, so commercial must also come down with residential. In part it is driven by bank stupidity. The banks made crazy loans on the way up, driving prices higher and higher. They are now backing away from otherwise sane loans, causing deals to die and properties to be listed at lower and lower prices. A residential mortgage guy I know is bemoaning several files not closing because the bank backed away from solid deals. In a sense, the banks are digging their own graves with this behavior, and several have already jumped into these graves (Washington Mutual & Country Wide to name two).

Think about it, you hold all these real estate loans, some good, some bad, but all are based on the value of the underlying real estate. If that value goes down, the loans get riskier. If the value goes down enough, the owner’s most logical step may be to walk away. For example, if it is cheaper to rent a comparable property to the home you own and live in, and if you have no equity, it makes sense to walk away if you can’t get out. Sure your credit is going to get screwed, but only for seven years. And is it worth say an extra $1,500 a month just to save your credit? Maybe yes, maybe no.

And how about Commercial Multi-Family Properties? If an own is facing increasing vacancies, downward trending rents, and increasing expenses, as I did in the last 2+ years, he may not be able to hold on. If his equity is gone, what is his incentive to keep putting money into the building. If the loans are non-recourse, he doesn’t even risk his personal credit rating and assets. Buh-bye. I hate to admit, but I thought about it few times while my own deal was on life support. Fortunately I was able to close and those bad ideas became just a bad dream.

Meanwhile, as the banks keep pushing down prices by backing away from or refusing to make loans in the first place, they cause more loans to go bad, as owners have less equity and therefore less incentive to hold on. Hold on!